On May 21, I wrote about how Framber Valdez decided to go rogue the day before against the Angels. What was once a 6-1 lead in the fifth inning turned into a deflating 9-7 defeat. Valdez allowed seven runs in that inning, which effectively sank the Astros that day. Considering the underwhelming start to Houston’s season, it wasn’t a great look to see your best starting pitcher deviate from the game plan to yield such disastrous results. Take into account how last season unfolded for Valdez and you suddenly start feeling some negative vibes.
Thankfully, vibes are only that, nothing more. Those can change in a hurry, for better or worse. Valdez indeed made sure it was for the better as his results since that start against the Angels have been a key factor in the Astros’ resurgence this season.
From May 27 Through September 11
115 2⁄3 IP, 26.3% K%, 8.4% BB%, 58% GB%, 2.49 ERA, 2.86 FIP
For a starting rotation ravaged by injuries, Valdez needed to pitch well. That much was obvious. If he didn’t then the Astros didn’t figure to have much of a chance. While his overall numbers last season weren’t bad, it was clear that the left-hander regressed from his 2021-22 peak. From July 15 through the end of last season, Valdez had a 4.66 ERA and 4.39 FIP in 87 innings, including his no-hitter against the Guardians. Houston simply couldn’t withstand the sheer number of injuries and Valdez pitching like that again this summer. That is why his performance this year, even if underrated, was so valuable. For as much as we can praise Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, and Spencer Arrighetti, Valdez has steadied the ship by pitching like the ace he can be. One reason for that is that his sinker is acting as it should.
I was never a huge fan of Valdez’s continued uptick in velocity year-over-year. Don’t get me wrong, I typically like it when a pitcher does see an increase in velocity. Higher velocity can lead to better results. We’ve seen that happen time and again, including for Valdez. But for certain pitches, like Valdez’s sinker, too much velocity could be detrimental. As one could gather from the above chart, Valdez’s sinker towards the end of 2022 and throughout 2023 saw a noticeable change in vertical movement on his sinker, and not for the better.
Sinkers, by design, are meant to generate contact, preferably ground balls. But when the velocity sees too much of a spike, then the ball has less time to break. In turn, the sinker loses its defining trait and starts staying higher in the strike zone. Opposing hitters like that. Sinkers are great pitches when executed correctly. If not, they can become meatballs.
Valdez reverting to a bit less velocity, but more vertical break, on his sinker was a welcomed development this season. It is reflected in the numbers, especially as hitters only have a .372 SLG and .443 xSLG against his sinker compared to .455 and .517 in 2023. The sinker is the pitch that makes his entire arsenal work.
Ace-level Valdez was on display again against the Athletics in Thursday’s win. We saw, again, examples of his sinker acting as it should. The overall result was great, with him throwing 6 1⁄3 innings of one-run ball. In a game that the Astros needed to win to snap a three-game skid, especially with the Mariners only 3 1⁄2 games behind in the standings, it was a relief to see this kind of Valdez again. Let’s hope it continues.