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ALDS Key Factors That Stand Out Between Houston and Minnesota

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ALDS

The ALDS is finally here. For the Houston Astros, they have been a steady presence in October baseball for almost a decade. Since 2015, the team has played 92 playoff games, more than any other team in the league. On the other hand, the Minnesota Twins won their first postseason game in 19 years on Tuesday. Though many might expect a lopsided series, there is one key factor between Houston and Minnesota that can make this a great series.

The two squads will face off in the best-of-five American League Division Series beginning on Saturday at Minute Maid Park. The Twins enter the series after looking great in two games against the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card Round.

Former Astros icon Carlos Correa will lead the Twins against his former team. Minnesota signed Correa for his ability to lead and step up in the biggest moments. This series will mark his first opportunity to prove his true worth to the Twins.

ALDS Matchup Closer Look

Starting Pitching is the Key Factor

The Astros received a bye after winning the American League West and finishing with the second best record in the AL. Skipping the Wild Card round allowed the veteran team to rest (they last played on Sunday, October 1) and set up their rotation. 

Houston’s championship pedigree, experience, and Minnesota winning the worst division in MLB in uninspiring fashion will make Houston the favorites in this series. The Astros have made several deep playoff runs in recent years thanks to a great pitching depth. However, injuries and have tested that depth since April. Houston enters this postseason in perhaps it’s weakest state since 2015.

Minnesota produced surprisingly great pitching numbers this season. The Twins’ pitching staff led the majors with a strikeout percentage of 25.9 percent. Pitchers with strikeout ability are immensely valuable in the postseason. The Twins will hope a revamped staff is enough to take advantage of an Astros team that has never looked this vulnerable in recent years.

Unsurprisingly, the key factor between Houston and Minnesota will be how well the starting pitchers perform. Strikeouts and homers typically rule October, and these staffs have had interesting relationships with the two stats.

Other than Correa facing his former squad, starting pitching will be the main factor in this series. Houston has proven commodities that experienced struggles in the regular season. They might have found their groove late in the year, but will it carry over into October?

Minnesota will rely on a youngster in Game 1 but veterans with some playoff experience in Games 2 through 5. Twins starters have a chance to step up and slay Goliath while making a name for themselves on a national stage. It will be interesting to see if they’re up to the task.

Astros Starting Rotation

Houston announced Justin Verlander and Framer Valdez, respectively, as starters for Games 1 and 2. Though this duo dominated last postseason (one that saw the ‘stros win the World Series), legitimate questions surround both this October. That doesn’t even mention potential uncertainties regarding a third and fourth starter.

Justin Verlander

Verlander, at 40-years-old, produced his worst strikeout numbers since 2014. His strikeout rate this year (21.5 percent) was below average and much lower than last year’s 27.8 percent rate. Additionally, 2023 saw Verlander produce his lowest swinging strike rate since 2014 and highest walk rate since 2017.

The playoffs are about limiting balls in play. Strikeouts are king in October and it will be interesting to see if Verlander’s declining numbers impact his pefromace this October.

It seems that the future Hall of Famer will enter the postseason fresh off adjustments made before his last start of the regular season. Verlander said mechanical adjustments freed him up which led to higher velocity, which should lead to more strikeouts. The Twins’ offense had the highest strikeout percentage in the league last year. It’s clear that Verlander’s strikeout ability will be a key factor in Game 1.

Framber Valdez

Framber Valdez pitched great last postseason and started 2023 strong too. His season peaked in early August when he no-hit the Cleveland Guardians on just 93 pitches. However, the lefty struggled mightily after that.

In his final 10 starts of the year (all 10 immediately after his no hitter), Valdez produced a 4.29 ERA with 59 punch outs in 63 innings. He gave up four or more runs in half of these starts.

Valdez typically has good strikeout numbers. As with Verlander, the Twins represent a great opponent for Valdez to rebound and right the ship for a deep playoff run.

Cristian Javier

Although it’s not announced, Game 3 will likely be started by Cristian Javier. The righty struggled to an ERA above seven from late June to early September, but he finished the year strong. In his final four starts, the 26-year-old posted a 3.05 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, which included an 11 strikeout perforce against the Orioles on September 20.

The team blames his struggles on mechanics and a heavy workload. It seems that Javier has fixed any issues just in time for postseason ball. Like most Astros, Javier was great in the playoffs last year, highlighted by his six no hit innings that began a combined no hitter in Game 4 of the World Series.

One advantage for the Astros in this series is their postseason experience. Verlander, Valdez, and Javier have struggled in the regular season, but they all know what it takes to win in the playoffs. They should be able to more quickly identify and make necessary adjustments and lead Houston to another title.

Twins Starting Rotation

Minnesota had to play two games to advance and play the Astros in this round. Though they will play Game 1 with two days of rest, the Twins must rely on their third starter in Game 1 against the legendary Verlander. The Wild Card round is meant to give an advantage to the two division winners with the best records in each league. That has played out exactly as anticipated in this series.

Bailey Ober

Bailey Ober‘s breakout 2023 season earned him the start in Game 1 over rested starters Joe Ryan and Kenta Maeda. The 28-year-old righty pitched to a 3.43 ERA with 146 strikeouts in 144 1/3 innings. Ober did not make the rotation out of Spring Training, but injuries opened a spot for him in April and he took advantage.

The Twins briefly sent Ober to the minors in September for a brief physical and mental rest. He showed signs of fatigue, likely due to his career high innings workload. The rest looked like it paid off as Ober posted a 2.03 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 26 2/3 innings between Triple-A and the majors in September and October.

Game 1 against the reigning World Champions will be the toughest task of his young career. Minnesota does not have it’s top two starters fully rested for Game 1 and will hope Ober steps up.

Ober will have to not only navigate a tough lineup, but match his counterpart that has much more regular season and playoff experience than him. Ober has the chance to make a name for himself on a national stage the way Logan Webb did with the Giants in 2021. Let’s see if he’s up for it.

Pablo Lopez

Pablo Lopez will start Game 2 on full rest after pitching the opening game of the Wild Card round against the Blue Jays. Idolizing Twins legend Johan Santana growing up, Lopez relies on a solid changeup to get hitters out. He had a solid first year in Minnesota and is the face of a revitalized Twins rotation that suddenly leads the world in strikeouts.

Lopez had a great strikeout (29.2 percent) and walk (6 percent) percentages that led to a 3.66 ERA in 194 innings. He did not face Houston in the regular season, so maybe holds an advantage over Houston hitters  since they have not seen him.

Lopez is aware of the Twins’ recent postseason-losing drought. It motivated him throughout the season and helped him perform well in Game 1’s historic win at Target Field. Lopez is currently set up to not only pitch Game 2, but a potential winner-takes-all Game 5 if needed. The Venezuelan is a bulldog clearly up for the challenge, and like Ober, finally has a chance to showcase himself on a national stage.

Sonny Gray

Sonny Gray led a postseason rotation early in his career with the Oakland Athletics. He gets the nod in Game 3 and will be on full rest after tossing five scoreless innings on Wednesday against Toronto. It marked his first postseason action since 2017 with the Yankees and was a continuation of his great 2023 season.

In 184 innings (his most since 2019), Gray made 32 starts with a 2.79 ERA. His ERA+ indicates Gray was 54 percent better than league average and he is expected to finish in the top-5 in the American League Cy Young voting.

Gray stymied the Blue Jays offense with a fastball that touched 95 mph, a devastating sweeper, and a solid curve. He effectively utilized his repertoire to prevent homers throughout the regular season, leading him to the lowest homers-allowed average in MLB.

The key factor between Houston and Minnesota will be starting pitching. If the Twins want to beat Houston, they must keep the powerful Astros hitters in check. While Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are more prototypical power hitters, Houston’s smaller infielders Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Jeremy Pena have proven the ability to hit big postseason homers.

Photo Credit: © Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

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