From an Astros’ perspective, there wasn’t much to like about the Wild Card series loss to the Tigers. For one, it was an unceremonious sweep for a club that had advanced to at least the ALCS for seven consecutive seasons before 2024. The expectation entering the season was to advance to an eighth in a row. Considering how the season started and finished, it certainly felt like the Astros were indeed inevitable. There was also the fact that the roster stands to look different in 2025, especially with Alex Bregman’s free agency on the horizon. While multiple familiar faces will return next year, Bregman is one of the faces of the franchise. Replacing him, on- and off the field, is a tall task.
For as much as disappointment was the recurring theme of the 2024 season in Houston, there were some bright spots worth recalling. Hunter Brown, for example, transformed from a demotion candidate to a legitimate second starter on the staff. His lone postseason start against the Tigers was one of the better pitching performances I watched from an Astros starter this year. He had his full complement of pitches working effectively well that afternoon, limiting Detroit to one earned run in 5 2⁄3 innings with nine strikeouts. 16 whiffs on 46 swings. To no one’s surprise, each pitch had a little extra zip in velocity as it was also Brown’s first career postseason start against his favorite childhood team. While the final result of the game wasn’t what the Astros had in mind, Brown’s performance put an exclamation point on his season that likely no one expected if you only watched him in April.
That much-discussed sinker, especially with its glove-side movement against right-handed hitters, granted Brown another reliable pitch. While his cutter is a decent neutralizer inside against left-handed hitters, the right-hander needed something else to help complement his other pitches against hitters of the same side as him. The cutter wasn’t fooling anyone hitting right-handed hitters as it moves away glove side, who had a .608 slugging percentage against it last season and .438 through the end of April this year. While it was an inside pitch to lefties, which helps explains its success, right-handed hitters would obviously be less apt to take the bait as an outside offering.
To improve, Brown required a pitch that didn’t move like his other pitches. Again, his sinker with its arm-side movement was the key to unlocking the rest of his arsenal. Opposing hitters weren’t punishing his four-seam fastball as much as before. By the summer, Brown’s sinker had become the pitch he used most often against right-handed hitters by a large margin, which is a trend I am curious to see if it continues in 2025. Honestly, I do expect that trend to hold.
Another trend I want to monitor for 2025 is how much Brown uses his sinker against left-handed hitters. While he didn’t use it that much — topping out at 7.5% of the time in August — Brown more than doubled his usage rate against the opposite hand in September, finishing with a 16.4% usage rate. While the sample size for that month was only 29 sinkers against left-handed hitters, it was effective, with no hits allowed. Whereas his cutter had some notable issues as an outside pitch against right-handed hitters in the past, perhaps the opposite could happen with his sinker against lefties. If so, then his sinker usage could increase even more than what it was for 2024.
Brown’s progression on multiple fronts this year was a key reason why the Astros were able to mount a comeback following a noticeably subpar start to the season to win the AL West. The sinker by itself wasn’t the pitch that stood out from the rest. Instead, it was a pitch that brought the rest of his arsenal together to push him to new heights. I am excited to see how he further adjusts in 2025.