Will the Astros improve from 2024?
Anyone who has read my articles for the past two years knows I am not afraid to call out Houston’s front office. However, there is no doubt that this offseason has been a success. Going into the winter, the Astros had three primary issues to address. First, they had to resign Bregman or find a suitable replacement. Secondly, they needed to sign Kyle Tucker to a long-term extension or trade him. Lastly, they had to find a first baseman who could hit. Dana Brown accomplished all these goals and even addressed some more minor needs.
It would have been ideal if the Astros could sign AB to a 6-year, 150-million-dollar extension, but that is unrealistic. At the time of writing, Bregman remains a free agent, but it is rumored that he is looking for a contract worth significantly more than that. Still, if Crane is going to let Bregman walk over financial concerns, it would be nice to make a competitive offer with Tucker, but that is not how Crane does business. Given that the Astros were unlikely to resign Bregman, they needed to get creative to find his replacement.
Juan Soto has flashier tools than Kyle Tucker but are relatively similar in overall production. So, when Soto got a 15-year, $765 million mega contract, it was clear that Houston could not resign him after this season. As most of you already know, the Astros traded Tucker to the Cubs for Isaac Paredes, Cam Smith, and Hayden Wesneski. This solved Houston’s 3rd base solution and added depth to the farm system and starting rotation.
Issac Paredes has averaged approximately three fWAR a year for the past three seasons and is under team control for the next three years. He is also only 25, so there is a good chance that his best baseball is still ahead of him. Cam Smith is a top-100 3B prospect who will likely start the season in AA. Of course, prospects have a high washout rate, but there is a lot to like about Smith; I would not be surprised if he were the best piece of the trade. Hayden Wesneski is the type of pitcher the Astros have successfully developed over the past ten years. He has some decent stuff but has yet to assemble everything over an entire season. He could be a suitable back-of-the-rotation option for the Astros for years to come. The past two years have shown you can never have too much depth.
For some reason, Houston has had a hard time finding a quality first basemen since Yuli fell off in 2022. Jimmy Click traded for Mancini at the 2022 deadline, but Baker did not use him often, and he was not good anyway. In the 2023 off-season, Houston inked Jose Abreu to a three-year deal, but he was terrible. Generally, first basemen are expected to be above-average hitters, but Houston has struggled even to be average at that position. Luckily, the Astros signed Christian Walker to a three-year, $60 million contract. If the Astros had not traded Tucker and passed from signing Alex Bregman, the Astros would probably not have made this move. At 33, it is unlikely that Walker will experience the same drop-off that Abreu did, so hopefully, the Astros will significantly improve at first base.
In an ideal world, the Astros would have resigned Tucker and Bregman to extensions, and the Astros could keep the band together. However, we live in a world with limited resources, and tough choices must be made. With the moves the Astros made this off-season, they will likely be competitive in the AL West for the next several years. I think the real X-factor for this trade will be if Chas McCormick can return to his past form. One of the frustrating aspects of the 2023 season was that McCormick and Meyers were both good outfielders, but they could not play every day. With Tucker out of the picture, that opens the door to both those guys playing 150+ games this season. If Chas can be healthy and perform like he did in 2022 and 2023, I could see the Astros being better than in 2024.
What do y’all think? comment below