A trip to the ALCS, an annual tradition in Houston for the past seven years, has come to an unceremonious end. I mean, it was going to happen, sooner or later. Preferably later, but we never get to decide such things in life. These runs aren’t destined to last forever. Just enjoy the ride as long as you can. I know I have, and I hope you did the same.
There is a lot to unpack about the 2024 Astros. There was the incredibly frustrating 12-24 start amid a slew of injuries to the pitching staff. Late-inning meltdowns. Joe Espada’s managerial debut. Ronel Blanco’s no-hitter. The specter of Alex Bregman’s free agency hanging over the club. Hunter Brown implementing a sinker on May 5 joins Jeremy Peña’s September 5, 2022 plate adjustment in franchise lore of in-season fixes. Framber Valdez went rogue and did not do it again. Kyle Tucker’s shin “contusion.” Dana Brown and the back of the baseball card talk. Spencer Arrighetti learned on the fly. Ben Gamel became the most productive outfielder on the roster in August not named Yordan Alvarez. An 18-27 record in one-run games. Overcoming a ten-game deficit in the AL West. Inexplicable bouts of not scoring. Yusei Kikuchi’s adjustments that led to strong results. Winning the AL West for the seventh time in eight seasons. Scoring only three runs in two games against the Tigers in an AL Wild Card sweep. It was a real mixed bag of results, this season.
Unfortunately, this team had the potential to author a better ending. Even accounting for a slow start in April and into early May, by the time Houston bounced back in the standings, they still had an opportunity in September to flirt for the two-seed and a bye. That wasn’t easy considering the hole they were in. Dating back to June 1, there wasn’t a better team in the AL than the Astros with a 63-40 record for roughly a 99-win pace across a full 162-game season. But adjust your scope enough and you can see the Tigers enter the picture as the hottest team since August 1. Postseason baseball is inherently a crapshoot and the Astros happened to catch the hottest team in baseball at the wrong time in a short series. It happens.
But, again, you can see why there was a good measure of hope surrounding this team entering October. The rotation, besieged by injuries early and bouts of ineffectiveness, had turned the corner by June. The bullpen settled down. The lineup, flawed as it was, had a top-eleven finish in runs scored. But slow starts matter. Perhaps climbing back into the AL postseason race just took much out of this roster. Probably so, to be honest. It wasn’t an enviable task. A 34-year-old Jose Altuve, for example, played in 153 games this season, his most since 2017 when he also appeared in 153 games. Jeremy Peña played in 157. Yainer Díaz, in his first full season as the primary catcher, appeared in 148 games. Not all were behind the plate, but that’s still a large workload. Alvarez finished with 147 games and a knee injury. For a club that could’ve benefitted from giving players extra off days here and there, that slow start didn’t afford the Astros any comfort.
Across a 161-game season and two lackluster postseason games, there are plenty of opportunities to find something wrong with a roster. Pitching depth was somewhat addressed in-season, thankfully. The trade acquisition of Kikuchi, in particular, stands out. By the time the postseason rolled around, there were enough quality arms in the rotation to avoid some of the same pitfalls from April. Blanco and Arrighetti became reliable enough that they could help bridge the gap in the middle innings if needed come October in a short series. But of all the issues this season, and there were plenty, the largest frustration was ultimately the lineup. Yes, the Astros finished eleventh in runs scored (740). Fifth in wRC+ (111). Second-lowest strikeout rate in baseball, once again. That’s typically good. But something just wasn’t clicking within this group. For instance, a 98 wRC+ in high-leverage situations. Middle of the pack when it came to power. A .150 ISO with runners in scoring position (21st in baseball), the lowest of any postseason team this year. It wasn’t much better with runners on base in general, with a .151 ISO (20th in baseball). Of the regulars, only three (Alvarez, Tucker, and Bregman) finished with an ISO higher than .145 on the season. If it felt like this lineup was a hitter or two short for most of the season, you weren’t necessarily wrong.
Hitters 1-2: .277/.342/.464, .806 OPS, 63 HR (league average OPS: .747)
Hitters 3-6: .272/.336/.436, .772 OPS, 89 HR (league average OPS: .731)
Hitters 7-9: .235/.286/.358, .645 OPS, 38 HR (league average OPS: .655)
Naturally, the lower in the lineup you are, the quality of a hitter declines. That is no earth-shattering secret. But for hitters hitting seventh through ninth, the league average OPS for this season was .655. The Astros were slightly below that mark. So, you know, not terrible for that group of hitters, but compared to the quality of hitters preceding them in this lineup, it was indeed a sharp dropoff. The outfield, in particular, was a troublesome group, with only Alvarez (when he was in the field) and Tucker finishing with a wRC+ higher than 100 of the regulars with at least 100 plate appearances on the season.
There’s also the consideration that both Altuve and Bregman were less efficient at the plate in 2024, with both seeing large declines in walk rates and overall offensive declines compared to 2023. The fact that Bregman still posted a 118 wRC+ compared to his 126 mark in 2023 amid that horrid start to his season this year speaks to how well he hit in the summer months. Regardless, an adjustment to the lineup’s approach for the lineup could be incoming for 2025, to some extent. This lineup had the fourth-lowest walk rate in baseball and typically saw fewer pitches in their at-bats than most clubs. Any changes are also heavily dependent on the player personnel, though.
Looking ahead for a moment, the Astros will have some tough conversations in the days ahead. Bregman’s free agency will be the main storyline this winter, with the star third baseman looking to secure another long-term commitment. Matt Chapman’s six-year, $151 million extension with the Giants is the likely floor for any Bregman contract and the odds feel high that he’ll beat it on the open market. Under Jim Crane’s tenure as owner, we haven’t seen him hand out the type of contract it’ll likely take to retain Bregman’s services. There’s also Kikuchi and whether Houston will seriously pursue him. I doubt it considering the pitching situation at hand, but never say never. How will Brown address the rest of the lineup, including the outfield? How comfortable do they feel about certain prospects like Brice Matthews and Jacob Melton in full-time roles? How much does Crane’s budget allow or limit activity this winter? The Astros are now at a crossroads and it is going to be a fascinating offseason for a club grown accustomed to winning, no matter what.