There was a time this season, most recently the middle of June, when I thought the Astros would sell by the trade deadline. Or, at least, the likelihood was higher than being a buyer or standing pat. I mean, Alex Bregman will enter free agency this winter and pitchers are always in demand. That thinking to be fair was entirely due to that brutal start. But thanks to a 28-16 record since June 1 and the mediocrity known as the AL West, they will most certainly be buyers to help bolster their odds of qualifying for the postseason for the eighth consecutive year. The pressing question is whether the organization has the prospects to improve the roster meaningfully via trade, but that’s a separate discussion.
In terms of the payroll, however, Dana Brown and the front office don’t have a lot of it unless Crane dictates otherwise. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Astros presently have a payroll of around $254.543 million for this season. That is certainly over the first tax threshold of $230 million and even surpasses the second threshold of $250 million. If that figure is ultimately accurate then Crane can expect to pay a tax of around $3.5 million. Or, in other words, paying Mauricio Dubón’s 2024 salary twice. So, you know, nothing too outrageous. That is a small price to pay to build a roster designed to compete in the postseason.
With that said, it isn’t exactly known how much appetite Crane has to absorb additional salary, especially since the club is already toeing the line between the first and second thresholds. Accounting for the contracts of the recently released José Abreu and Rafael Montero leaves the Astros in a tough position. Those are essentially a sunk cost and I’d figure it would take attaching a prospect to any trade involving Montero to remove his contract from Houston’s books. Again, not an ideal situation considering the already weakened state of the farm system.
Depending on where the payroll settles in terms of the threshold, the Astros are looking at paying an extra 20% or 32% for any new salary coming in. There is a world, however, where the Astros could send out salary — Montero ($11 million AAV) and Kendall Graveman ($8 million AAV), for example — to help offset any additional monetary penalties from new salary coming in. Keep in mind that any money coming in or out will be pro-rated, so the Astros wouldn’t absorb the full financial burden of new salary coming in relation to that player’s overall 2024 salary, but they also wouldn’t obtain full relief of any exiting salary. But if they could move on from Montero’s contract, then his $11 million AAV obligation for 2025 is no longer Houston’s concern.
At this point, I’ve learned not to wring my hands too much about Houston’s current payroll situation. Relative to his peers, Crane does spend money. It is fair to question the allocation of those funds, especially during that infamous GM-less period following the 2022 World Series. But considering the money he has already invested into this roster, it would feel disappointing to see him reign it in all of a sudden. These Astros, while imperfect, have a real opportunity to seize the AL West if they address the pitching staff and possibly first base. And, honestly, Brown doesn’t need to acquire a star player at any position for that to happen. But Houston does need to at least fortify the rotation with another veteran arm and find someone who could form a viable platoon with Jon Singleton at first base. If those acquisitions happen, then I’d be perfectly fine with that approach. And if it costs Crane a couple more million in a tax payment by the end of the year, well, you’re already committed to the projected fifth-highest payroll in the sport, so you might as well go for it.