We’re currently in a quiet period of the offseason, with few, if any, notable transactions to analyze. The Angels are curiously active, adding a handful of major league-caliber players. The rumor mill is also active but light on actual transactions. The market will likely remain at this slow pace until some traction occurs with the top free agents. But teams remain engaged, either in negotiations or consummating more minor transactions. The Astros, for example, continue to scour the market for relief depth by signing left-hander Steven Okert to a minor league contract earlier this week. A minor addition, but one that could possibly pay some dividends.
Signing Okert continues a trend under Dana Brown since last offseason: Targeting possible under-the-radar pitchers to help fill out the bullpen’s depth chart. Besides signing Josh Hader last offseason, which was likely driven first by Jim Crane, Brown has sought to find diamonds in the rough to absorb some relief innings. Tayler Scott, Bryan King, and Kaleb Ort were acquired externally from the organization by Brown and had varying levels of success at the major league level in 2024. The front office is continuing this trend to see if they can find someone to provide some depth, which was sorely lacking at times.
The 33-year-old Okert could be an interesting pitcher to watch in Houston. For one, I wonder if he would benefit from a pitch mix adjustment. With the Marlins, Okert threw only two pitches: A four-seam fastball and a slider. The results were generally fine, with back-to-back sub-3.00 ERA seasons in 2021 and 2022 with an above-average slider and a passable fastball. But with the Twins in 2024, he introduced two pitches that he last threw in 2018 with the Giants, a sinker and changeup. To be fair to Minnesota, the idea of de-emphasizing his four-seam fastball made some sense, as it is historically his worst pitch based on performance. While his fastball was adequate enough during his best seasons, its performance downgraded in a notable fashion in each of the past two seasons, with a -8 run value in 2023 and a -6 run value this year. It made sense for the Twins to have Okert implement some different offerings to lessen the influence of his four-seam while hopefully pairing well with his slider. Unfortunately, his sinker against left-handed hitters and changeup against right-handed hitters were also liabilities, with both pitches performing as poorly, if not more so, than his four-seam. It is worth noting that Okert did see a velocity decline this year, so hopefully, the Astros can figure something out on that front.
Unsurprisingly, the left-hander’s strikeout and whiff rates saw a noticeable decline in 2024 compared to past seasons. But considering how his fastball still struggled with better velocity in 2023 and only had middling results in 2021-22, Houston may continue to lessen the reliance on that pitch. At least at the major league level this year, the Astros’ pitching staff saw an uptick in changeup usage as a whole, and I wonder, even with generally poor numbers, if the front office noticed something with Okert’s changeup that drew their attention. While this signing may not turn many heads at the moment, the Astros can’t afford to not explore their options to improve, even among the most unlikely of places.