Not even I could have predicted how one-sided the results would be
In May of 2019, I put a silly article together highlighting how Yordan Alvarez compared to Vlad Jr.
At the time, Vlad Jr was hyped as one of the greatest prospects of all-time.
With the article having some snippets like:
“Because there’s no question that Guerrero is the best prospect in baseball, let’s ask some bigger questions. Is he the best prospect in history? And if not, is he the best offensive prospect ever?”
The article goes on to say he’s not the best prospect of time, but potentially the best hitter, with some arguments for A-Rod, Griffey, and Trout in the article disputing the greatest prospect of all time.
While Yordan raked, he was still relatively unknown, having been traded for Josh Fields in what may compete with the Bagwell trade for the greatest of all time.
At the time of the article, Yordan didn’t crack Fangraph’s top 100 prospects, and while I highlighted that Yordan was setting all-time minor league records, even my article ended with:
“So with everything said, I can’t honestly say that Yordan is better than Vlad Jr. Or even close. What I can say, is what he’s currently doing, Vlad Jr had never matched in his career, which is an absolute blast to watch.”
I fully admit to being more of an analytics than a prospect baseball fan, but 5 years later, Yordan has not only matched Vlad Jr’s numbers, he’s absolutely dominated them.
Vlad Jr – .288/.363/.500, 160 HR, 17 WAR
Yordan – .298/.390/.583, 164 HR, 23.3 WAR
Yordan has stepped up to the plate 872 times less than Vlad, still hitting more home runs, and providing far more WAR in less games.
To be clear, this isn’t a bash on Vlad Jr, he’s still one of the best players in the league. But Vlad Jr’s best season of his career was 2021, earning 6.3 WAR where he produced a 166 wRC+. 166 is a remarkable wRC+, 66% above the average of the best league in the world. His .401 OBP and .601 SLUG both lead the league, only losing the MVP to an absurd season of Shohei Ohtani dominating both sides of the ball.
So why highlight Vlad’s best year and the 166 wRC+? Well, because that 166 figure is exactly Yordan’s CAREER AVERAGE.
I will be honest, that figure is staggering to me. I’ve been blessed to watch most of Yordan’s at bats, and even so, it seems beyond unimaginable.
While we’re just 5 years into a battle that I hope goes on for another decade, I can’t help but think the early rounds remind me of the greatness I take for granted at times, and how absolutely incredible Yordan Alvarez is.
While this comparison was built around Vlad Jr before their careers started, Yordan has been essentially the second best bat in the entire league since his debut. Edging out some of the league’s elite’s like Trout (165), Soto (160), and Ohtani (153).
At just 27 years old, we’re likely just beginning to witness the prime of one of the greatest hitters who will ever wear an Astros uniform. That may sound like a bold statement, but as you begin to compare Bagwell and Yordan’s early careers, you can’t help but wonder if he may take this throne.
Bagwell 23-27
Bagwell – .306/.395/.515, 113 HR, 153 OPS+
Yordan – .298/.390/.583, 164 HR, 166 OPS+
Bagwell brought a more diverse skillset to the game, but Yordan’s initial years have him standing at a different level. Although, it it worth noting, Bagwell was still batting in the cavernous Astrodome.