Season’s over. Time to look back and ahead.
What a year. For the Astros, it was quite the roller coaster ride, going in directions both expected (AL West title, hosting a playoff series at home), and not (7-19 start, the fastest playoff trip for the team since 2001). Now, 27 observations about the Astros and others in MLB this past season.
- Sometimes, it can be harder to maintain a great team vs. building up a bad one for a first year manager. For Joe Espada, he got tasked with a team coming off seven straight ALCS appearances. Yet, he couldn’t have foreseen the team’s nightmare start of 7-19. He had his mistakes and questionable decisions, but when the team could’ve imploded, Espada did not, and the team took its lead from him. A disappointing playoff loss to the Tigers hurts, but going from that start to the 3-seed in the AL does offer some validation of his methods and approach.
- The 2024-25 off-season might be the most important for the Astros and this time, we really mean it. For Houston, the last decade has been one where it is all about retooling for yet another championship run. We, the fan/internet community, looked at those moves as the earthshaking acts, but all part of a contending team. Yet, Houston, for the first time in a long time, is at a legit crossroads. The core of players is moving from experienced to aging, the farm system is unable to reload as before and key components are entering, or about to enter free agency.
- The key players to watch this off-season: Kyle Tucker and Farmber Valdez. Alex Bregman’s situation gets the headlines. However, the strategic direction of the Astros rests with the other two. Both All-Star players who one more year of team control and we don’t know if the team can re-sign them this offseason or next. The team could stand pat, get one more year out of both and just take the draft pick comps. However, if the team wants to restock its farm system, a trade of one or both might yield some high-ceiling prospects that could extending the contending window after 2025.
- With a vested contract of $14M kicking in, Ryan Pressly remains under team control for one more season. However, his “demotion” to setup man didn’t go as smoothly as hoped. At 35, Pressly might not be worth the large contract. With a no-trade clause, Houston may have to see if he can recapture some old magic. Yet, if Houston could move him to another team, especially if that team plans to use him as a closer, Houston might also get a chance to restock and cut some salary.
- Could Justin Verlander come back? The back half of the season saw some of the worst pitching in the Hall of Famer’s career. His last start against Cleveland showed some of the old potential, but he was rightfully left off the Wild Card roster. Maybe time is catching up to the 42-year old. He is free agent now, but it is unlikely he’ll get the big contracts of the past. Maybe Houston can bring him back on a bit of a discount (relationship with Crane as helped before). Yet, if he comes back, it won’t be as an ace, but more a depth piece. Can’t completely rule it out though.
- While baseball doesn’t use the term “dead cap” (aka no salary cap), the concept applies to Houston. The two big contacts made by Crane after the 2022 championship between Click and Brown (Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero) now hang like a burning tire around fiscal neck of the Astros. Houston will pay ~$30M to both who don’t play on the big league roster. That $30M likely limits Houston’s free agency flexibility, especially if Crane is worried about future penalties. This might cost Houston the chance to bring back Bregman, as well as extend Tucker/Valdez. Of course, if Crane tries to blame anyone, he first should look in the mirror.
- GM Dana Brown’s previous employer, Atlanta, became the envy of MLB by locking up key young talent at reasonable prices. A good chance to apply that in Houston rests with SP Hunter Brown. After a brutal April, Brown evolved into one of the best pitchers on the roster. He’s built up conditioning for more innings and has a repertoire that can make him a potential staff ace. Locking him up through his arbitration and first few free agency years could do much to help Houston’s future outlook. Although, the recent news that Hunter Brown joined the Scott Boras Empire might render that move moot.
- Much of Houston’s projected success in 2025 stems from its starting rotation, especially if Valdez and Kikuchi return. However, a lot of that hope also rests on the team getting back key arms from injury. Garcia and McCullers attempted to rehab in time for 2024, but that didn’t come to pass. Additionally, the team looks to Javier, Urquidy (TBD on this one, as the Astros outrighted the pitcher, but could allow for him to return on a more team-friendly deal) and France to eventually return in 2025. For that to happen, the rehab must, MUST be successful. The track record for injury recovery for this team the last few seasons…well, it doesn’t engender much hope. Regardless of what sort of review was or was not done for this team, the fortunes of the Astros in the next couple of seasons rest on the efforts of the medical staff.
- While we’re at it, perhaps the Astros could avoid their annoying habit of opaqueness when discussing injuries? Not sure who it helped and/or if the team gained a competitive advantage. Given baseball’s continued relations with sports betting, expect that behind-the-scenes, MLB will drive home to teams about better communication on player status.
- While Houston finished the season with a winning record at home (46-35), they fell 0-2 in the Wild Card round. This puts the team’s home playoff losing streak at 7. Maybe not as dramatic as 2023, but what is it about MMP and the Astros in the playoffs? Home losing streaks sunk the team in 2018, 2019, 2023 and continued this year (2021 didn’t technically end on a home losing streak, but 1-2 in World Series home games doesn’t help).
- Is the AL West MLB’s weakest division? 2022 and 2023 saw the AL West produce the World Series champion. The triple-threat ending to the 2023 season saw three playoff caliber teams battle it out for ultimately two slots. Now? Texas fell off significantly from their championship run, and while Bochy teams have a nice every-other-year pattern, with management calling for cutting salary and possibly talent, does that make 2023 more of a fluke? As for Seattle, they possessed one of the best pitching staffs in the game, but couldn’t hit for anything, and a late season surge couldn’t save them. What will they do, especially if their ownership seems content to stay around the 88-win mark or so?
- Based on the success of Ohtani with the Dodgers, it is fair to call the Angels ownership among the worst in all of the major sports. Two multiple-MVP caliber talents on the roster, and that team never even got to .500, much less contending? Not that baseball will do this, but Arte Moreno needs to go.
- So the Dodgers finally won a full-season World Series? Amazing what another championship can do. Instead of being burdened by all the post-season failures and the bastardized 2020 title, they can say they’ve won two championships in five years. Given all of the resources, they very well could add another championship or two to their trophy cases before 2030 comes around. Of course, they’ll still be salty about 2017, but that’s their problem (and sad that it remains so).
- Even the biggest anti-Dodger fan finds it hard to root against Freddie Freeman. Beaten up with injuries all season, playing in the World Series with multiple injuries only to break the consecutive home run record and tie a 64-year World Series RBI mark. Factor that, and that he faced perhaps the worst nightmare of any father at one point in the year (his son is doing ok now), and yeah, the least that 2024 could do was give him a World Series MVP.
Stay tuned for more observations from 2024 and thoughts about the future in Part 2.